Directorate for Economic and Social Research
Welcome to my personal website! I work at the Development Bank of Latin America (CAF) leading its economic and social research team. Before, I worked for more than eight years at the OECD as a senior adviser in the Office of the OECD Chief Economist, advising on global macro and G20 issues. I was also the head of the Colombia and Greece unit at the OECD Economics Department, leading the team in charge of conducting the economic survey, macroeconomic forecasts and structural surveillance of both countries. Earlier, I held several positions in the OECD Development Centre, including head of the Latin America and Caribbean unit for three years, responsible for producing the OECD’s flagship publication on Latin America and several country studies. Previous to joining the OECD in 2008, I worked at the Inter-American Development Bank and the European Central Bank as a research economist on emerging markets. My research and policy papers have been published in numerous academic journals, books and conference volumes. I hold a PhD and MA in economics from the University of Maryland - College Park, with specialization in international macroeconomics and finance as well as econometrics. My fields of interest also include fiscal policy, economic growth and productivity. I completed my undergraduate economic studies at the University of the Republic of Uruguay.
Below you can find most of my publications and working papers.
"What explains output recoveries in Emerging Markets after the Global Economic and Financial Crisis?" (with Rolando Avendaño) coming soon
"Network sector reforms and exports in Greece," (with Christine de la Maisonneuve) coming soon
18. "Efficiency and contestability in emerging market banking systems," OECD Journal: Economic Studies Volume 2017, February 2017, pp. 1-32 (with Julien Pascal) WP version
17. "Subnational fiscal sustainability, risk sharing and "fiscal fatigue" in Colombia," Review of Public Economics/Hacienda Pública Española, forthcoming (with Christine de la Maisonneuve) WP version
16. "Doctoring the ball: the political economy of tax incentives for investment in Dominican Republic," Journal of Economic Studies, 44(1) , pp. 2-23, 2017 (with Angel Melguizo and Hamlet Gutierrez) WP version
15. "On the effectiveness of exchange rate interventions in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance 64, pp. 239-261, 2016 (with Eduardo Levy Yeyati and Arne Nagengast) WP version
14. "Productive capabilities: An empirical investigation of their determinants," Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 25(4), pp. 504-535, 2016 (with Arne Nagengast and José Ramón Perea) WP version
13. "On intergenerational (im)imobility in Latin America," Latin American Economic Review 24(9), 2015 (with Virginia Robano)
12. "Public investment and fiscal sustainability in Latin America: Incompatible goals?" Journal of Economic Studies 41(1), 2014 (with Luis Carranza and Angel Melguizo) VoxLACEA article WP version
11. "SME Internationalization through Value Chains: What Role for Finance?" Integration & Trade Journal 37, pp. 71-80, 2013 (with Rolando Avendaño and José Ramón Perea) Spanish version
10. "What drives tax morale? A focus on emerging economies," Review of Public Economics/Hacienda Pública Española 207-(4/2013), pp. 11-26, 2013 (with Angel Melguizo and Hamlet Gutierrez) WP version
9. "Understanding Solow Residuals in Latin America," Economia Journal of LACEA, 13(2), pp. 109-144, Spring 2013 WP version
8. "Sovereign Default Risk and Volatility," Economics Letters 114, pp. 47-50, 2012
7. "Emerging market business cycles: learning about the trend," Journal of Monetary Economics 5(8), pp. 616–631, 2011 (with Emine Boz and Bora Durdu)
6. "Fiscal policy in Latin America: countercyclical and sustainable?" Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 5, 2011-14, pp. 1-29, September 2011 (with Angel Melguizo and Alejandro Neut) VoxEU article WP version
5. "Public investment in developing countries: A blessing or a curse?" Journal of Comparative Economics 39(1), pp. 65-81, March 2011 (with Eduardo Cavallo) WP version
4. "Output collapses and productivity destruction," Review of World Economics 146(2), pp. 359-387, June 2010 (with Juan Blyde and Eduardo Fernández-Arias) WP version
3. "The pecking order of cross-border investment," Journal of International Economics 74(1), pp. 94-119, January 2008 (with Marcel Fratzscher) WP version
2. "The quality of institutions and foreign direct investment," Economics and Politics 19(3), pp. 317-344, November 2007 (with Ernesto Stein)
1. "Longitude matters: Time zones and the location of foreign direct investment," Journal of International Economics 71(1), pp. 96-112, March 2007 (with Ernesto Stein)
"Sistemas de pensiones multipilares: tendencias recientes en países OCDE," in Los sistemas de pensiones multipilares: invirtiendo en el futuro, International Federation of Pension Funds Administrators Conference Proceedings, February 2016
"Covering the uncovered: Labor informality, pensions and the emerging middle class in Latin America," in Jeff Dayton-Johnson (ed.) Latin America's Emerging Middle Classes, Palgrave Macmillan, 2015 (with Juan De Laiglesia and Angel Melguizo)
"Political attitudes of the middle class: the case of fiscal policy," in Jeff Dayton-Johnson (ed.) Latin America's Emerging Middle Classes, Palgrave Macmillan, 2015 (with Hamlet Gutierrez and Angel Melguizo)
"Tax Morale and Perceptions on Social Mobility, Fairness and Meritocracy in Latin America," in Progress in Economics Research, Volume 28, Nova Publisher, January 2014 (with Angel Melguizo)
"Education and social mobility in Latin America," LASA Forum, 44 (2), pp. 7-9, Spring 2013
"Educación, clases medias y movilidad social en América Latina," Pensamiento Iberoamericano No. 10, pp. 29-48, 2012 Background WP
"Taxation and Democracy in Latin America," in Jeff Dayton-Johnson and Javier Santiso (eds.) Handbook of Latin American Political Economy, Oxford University Press, pp. 712-737, 2012 (with Angel Melguizo) WP version
"Fiscal policy in Latin America: countercyclical and sustainable at last?" in Daniele Franco (ed.) Fiscal policy: what lessons from the crisis?, Banca d'Italia, pp.49-86, 2011 (with Angel Melguizo and Alejandro Neut) WP version
"What is impeding growth in Brazil?" in Growing Pains: Binding Constraints to Productive Investment in Latin America (M. Agosin, E. Fernández-Arias, and F. Jaramillo, eds.), Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC, 2009 (with Juan Blyde, Armando Castelar Pinheiro and Eduardo Fernández-Arias) WP version
"Core Labor Standards and Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean: Does Lax Enforcement of Labor Standards Attract Investors?" in Foreign Direct Investment, Nova Science Publishers, New York, 2009 (with Jacqueline Mazza and Andrew Morrison)
"The FTAA and the Location of FDI," in Antoni Estevadeordal, Dani Rodrik, Alan M. Taylor, and Andres Velasco (eds.) Integrating the Americas: FTAA and Beyond Harvard University Press, 2004 (with Eduardo Levy Yeyati and Ernesto Stein)
"Institutions, Integration, and the Location of Foreign Direct Investment," in New Horizons of Foreign Direct Investment, OECD Global Forum on International Investment, Paris, France, 2002 (with Ernesto Stein)
"Bilateral Real Exchange Rates and Volatility: The Uruguayan Experience in MERCOSUR" (in Spanish), in J.M. Fanelli (ed.) Coordinación de Políticas Macroeconómicas en el MERCOSUR, Editorial Siglo XXI, 2001 (with Fernando Lorenzo and Nelson Noya)
OECD Economic Surveys Greece 2016, OECD Publishing, Paris, 2016.
OECD Economic Surveys COLOMBIA 2015, OECD Publishing, Paris, 2015.
Multi-dimensional Review of Uruguay Volume 1. Initial Assessment, OECD Publishing, Paris, 2014.
"Macroeconomic outlook," Chapter 1, Latin American Economic Outlook: Logistics and competitiveness for development, OECD Development Centre, Paris, 2014.
Fiscal Policy for Development in the Dominican Republic, Making Development Happen No. 2, OECD Development Centre, Paris, 2013.
"Macroeconomic Overwiew," Chapter 1, Latin American Economic Outlook 2013: SME policies for structural transformation, OECD Development Centre, Paris, 2012.
"Sustainable Fiscal Policies for Stronger Social Contracts," Chapter 5 in Perspectives on Global Development 2012: Social Cohesion in a Shifting World, OECD Development Centre, Paris, 2011.
"Macroeconomic Overview" Part I in Latin American Economic Outlook 2012: Transforming the State for Development, OECD Development Centre, Paris, 2011.
"Education, Social Mobility and the Middle Sectors," Chapter 3 in Latin American Economic Outlook 2011: How Middle-class is Latin America?, OECD Development Centre, Paris, 2010 Brief Policy Insight (en français)
"The Middle Sectors, Fiscal Policy and the Social Contract," Chapter 4 in Latin American Economic Outlook 2011: How Middle-class is Latin America?, OECD Development Centre, Paris, 2010 (with Bárbara Castelletti, Hamlet Gutierrez and Angel Melguizo) Brief Policy Insight
"Aggregate Productivity: The Key to Unlocking Latin America’s Development Potential," Chapter 2 in Carmen Pagés (ed.) The Age of Productivity: Transforming Economies from the Bottom Up, Palgrave McMillan, New York, 2010 (with Eduardo Fernández-Arias) Background WP Database en español
"Macroeconomic Overview" Part I in Latin American Economic Outlook 2010, OECD Development Centre, Paris, 2009 (with Alejandro Neut)
"People and Money Flows: How Many and How Much?" Chapter 2 in Latin American Economic Outlook 2010, OECD Development Centre, Paris, 2009 (with Jeff Dayton-Johnson)
"Regional Integration and Foreign Direct Investment," in Beyond Borders: The New Regionalism in Latin America, Inter-American Development Bank, 2002 (with Eduardo Levy Yeyati, Stephen Meardon and Ernesto Stein) Background WP
"Foreign Direct Investment Policies," in Competitiveness: The Business of Growth, Inter-American Development Bank, 2001 (with Ernesto Stein)